Zach

Jul 4, 08 - 1:34 PM

Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

A while back I posted a reply that I wouldn't be surprised if developers abandoned some projects in the Bay due to lack of demand. The usual suspects replied I was living in cloud cuckoo land.
Just seen on Wales Today (you might not get that channel in London!) that the half finished 10 storey shell Prospect Place Block (?) is to be moth-balled.
This will do wonders for the sales of existing nearby (Luxury) apartments.

The development around the Ely river next to the Coogan spur (sorry can't remember their name) The tallest of which appears to have two apartments sold, this after 8 months.

I know I'm a bit of a gloom merchant but I have huge doubts for any large housing development which is either under way or hasn't started yet.
Even the SD2 project I wouldn't be surprised if when the final number of retailers are announced, complete floors are closed off.

Oh dear, rough times ahead

Wizard

Jul 4th, 2008 - 1:44 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I just saw that article aqbout Prospect Place too.

I think that somebody posted a photo of it on another thread here a month or so ago. There was talk of a bigger crane appearing. Unfortunately not.

The block is currently about 6 storeys high out of what was due to have been 17 storeys. Not a 'value enhancer' if you live in many of the apartments looking onto it either.

Many of the biggest housebuilders are in mortal danger of being declared bankrupt if they don't achieve refinancing with the next half a year.

If this isn't boom and bust, what is?

Cambo_Dai

Jul 4th, 2008 - 1:57 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

It certainly is a very severe downturn in the housing market - driven by extreme credit restriction in the mortgage market and a good dose of 'animal spirits'. Interestly, there seems to be a flight to terraced housing - this has performed pretty well.

It is rather surprising they'd mothball a building so far into construction - you would think half way through building they would have already comitted most of the money for the project. The developers are being very sneaky describing it as "temporary" and it will be back on track when "market conditions improve". Temporary normally means a pre-determined delay - e.g. 6 months. This effectively gives them years if thats what it takes for the market to enter a period of growth again.

I remain relatively sanguine about the impact on the economy. Since the 1990s there has been a decoupling of the traditionally very strong link between house prices and consumer spending. And for all the whinging about rising prices and some crap 'research' (the Ernst and Young thing today is really really rubbish. It counts people paying more into their pensions - finally listening perhaps? - as a "cost of living. Oh and it subtracts all the expensive bills and deflates by the overall price index - not the prices of 'discretionary' goods which have typically continued to fall), most families are seeing their real purchasing power stagnate rather than fall by any real degree. What we risk is talking the downturn deeper - when we should be trying to climb out instead.

Wizard

Jul 4th, 2008 - 2:03 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

A flight to terraced housing?

Not in this region. I know two terraced houses which I've had an eye on in Ponty which have had their prices dropped by 20% in the past six weeks.

Jantra

Jul 4th, 2008 - 2:34 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

we'll end up with a continental model whereby the majority rent...i do really think this time the housing makret will never really recover...primarily as a result of the banks refusing to offer the same sort of credit lines ever again. What is so wrong with the British that we insist that every man must have his castle.

Karl

Jul 4th, 2008 - 3:17 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I may be missing the point hugely but isn't the whole housing market simply correcting itself? Prices rising by 20% per annum was never sustainable indefinately was it? Surely everyone must have realised that? If you bought a house 5 years ago and saw it's value rise by 50-70% surely it was on the cards that it would eventually fall back to a more realistic level? That house is probably worth 10-20% more than you would have paid for it 5 years ago which is a growth of 2-4% per annum which sounds about right to me.

Similarly isn't credit just returning to normal after a few mad years ie. 3 times salary, 90% of the purchase price etc? Isn't this what it's always been? I think everyone is in danger of talking themselves into a dire mess.

What about food? Surely people could not have expected food to be so cheap for any great length of time? Chickens for £1.99, bread for 20p etc?

I actually agree with Cambo that what people are experiencing now is a stagnation in their living standards rather than a substantial fall. I also think we are settling back into what I view as normality. The only problem is that people have become spoilt into believing that they have a right to a buy to let property, 2 cars, a holiday home in Spain, cheap goods and endless credit. Time to get back to reality.

This is the time to take sandwiches to work, forego that 3rd £2 Starbucks of the day, just go on one holiday per annum instead of 2 and a number of city breaks, treat property as a home rather than simply an investment etc etc.......which was what we all used to do not so long ago anyway, wasn't it?

Cambo_Dai

Jul 4th, 2008 - 3:19 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

The "continental model" you discuss mainly applies to Germany. Most countries have owner-occupation as the norm too. Don't forget that in the 1950s most people still rented here.

I don't see the desire to "own a home" as changing - it remains very much a desire for people my age who have grown up during the 1980s and 1990s. There are reasons to own a home. Its useful collateral in bringing down credit costs, and it has tended to outperform cash in terms of returns and in the longrun will likely to continue to do so because of population growth and the difficulties in building.

Alex

Jul 4th, 2008 - 3:29 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I wonder about the role of the media in our perceptions of the 'credit crunch'

Are we genuinely all feeling the pinch, or are we being told we're feeling the pinch ?

Me

Jul 4th, 2008 - 3:49 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

If the best way to get good, tall, quality developments in Cardiff is to stop them all in their tracks for 1, 2, or 3 years while the economic situation turns a corner then so be it in my book. Three years in not a long time in the life of a city.

Having said that, I would be very disappointed if the SD2 apartments were either (a) slowed down, or (b) scaled down.

I understand thats a contradiction.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 4th, 2008 - 3:59 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I believe we are feeling a bit of a pinch but for the majority of people in this country it is mangageable quite easily by switching to cheaper brands of food, cutting back on one or two luxuries (eating out is my big expense), and by making a few investments in reducing our energy use. Apparently we waste something like 1/5 of our power by things on standby!

Jantra

Jul 4th, 2008 - 4:00 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

its not a contradiction, not in its truest sense

BTW Dai, having lived in Paris and Frankfurt, i can tell you the two main financial centres of (mainland) Europe at least, my colleagues at the time (from all over Europe) thought i was stark raving mada for purchasing a property and not renting.

I did experience some of this in London but again it was more from the Foreign Nationlas who really couldn't get their heads around our notion of 'must own own home'

some developers are certainly starting to rent their new builds rather than sell them outright...it might well be a contemporary phenomenon b ut I do think long term we will see less emphasis on owning ones own property...

Jantra

Jul 4th, 2008 - 4:02 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

moving to a rental makret rather than a sale market would make credit much easier to come by, thus reducing interest rates longer term...

it is far easier and less risky for banks to offer 10 people £25k loans than one person a £250k mortgage. You need 10 people to default to be exposed to the same risk...this is somethnig I am noticing in credit application policy from lenders.

Karl

Jul 4th, 2008 - 4:11 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Jantra

Outside of social landlords the renting system in this country mitigates against the type of long term renting by families that you see on the continent. Effectively a tenant is secure for 6 months. After that the tenant can be removed on the landlord giving notice regardless of the reason. Who would want to bring a family up in rented accommodation knowing that the landlord can realise his asset in a matter of months, get you out and rent to a higher bidder etc. No wonder we all crave a bit of security.

I don't know the economics but shared equity seems a sensible way forward. Security of tenure and investment in property, the likelihood of being able to secure credit at a decent rate if you are lending on 60-70% of the value. But without the huge expense of buying outright and having to find a huge deposit.

Up until now it's been social landlords who have run shared equity schemes but I am sure I saw an advertisment for sale of new builds by a national builder for 75% of the value. Perhaps this is the way forward for everyone - if of course builders are prepared to tie up cash in assets that may not be realised for a number of years.

Zach

Jul 4th, 2008 - 4:22 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

""Similarly isn't credit just returning to normal after a few mad years ie. 3 times salary, 90% of the purchase price etc? Isn't this what it's always been? I think everyone is in danger of talking themselves into a dire mess.""

The mess has already happened. The money thata couple of million people or so who bought in the past two/three years has to be paid back over the next 25. The so called wealth increase in your house is only there as long as the the First Time Buyers are more and more willing to put them selves in more and more debt. Typical pyramid scheme, only works as long as there is new members sustaining it.

Now the credit markets are returning to normal this will mean average house prices should be circa 100K not 180K This will have a profound affect on house prices for the next ten years.

A report just out says the amount of disposable income has fallen from 28% to 20% of gross,(2002/2007) this without any increases in Bank of England rates.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 4th, 2008 - 5:00 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

That is the Ernst and Young report which is CRAP. I don't know the full details (they are in fact very reluctant to provide this, which is very bad practise in economics research, suggesting they are very ad hoc and a bit ropey). But here are some of the big give-aways:

1) The "average" seems too high. It says 20% of income is disposable but gives a value of £750. This means an average monthly income of £3750 for a family. This seems rather high.

2) The have mortgage payments of something over £1000 a month. This MIGHT reflect the average mortgage taken out now, but not the average outstanding mortgage which is what matters to the majority of people who have not bought or sold.

3) Increased pension contributions by individuals in the last year are included as an "increase in the cost of living" rather than people (finally) taking some notice of the warnings to save more.

4) it doesn't take account of the fact that the price of "necessities" (mortgages, bills, food etc) is what has been driving inflation. They "deflate" using the overall RPI which includes these things - but the measure of income they have strips out these things. The prices of the goods that you pay out of disposable income (e.g. furniture, clothes, cds, electrical goods etc) have increased much more slowly and in many cases have actually fallen. So you have less money for clothes, white goods, consumer electronics but these are also much cheaper!

No offence to Jantra, but accountants (like EY) typically aren't good economists. They know a lot more than economists about the intricacies of tax planning, but typically make silly mistakes when talking about "macro" trends. Witness also Grant Thorntons £6 billion from oil prices which added up all the positives but ignored all the negative effects.

Karl

Jul 4th, 2008 - 5:24 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I'm clearly not very good at this thing but if average house prices are 100k rather than 180k then surely this makes it a more attractive proposition to first time buyers even with tougher credit criteria? Wouldn't that mean that a couple with a combined income of 35k (fairly modest these days) would be able to get a two and half times/three times salary mortgage of approximately 90k or perhaps even a bit more from a high street lender on a rate that is substantially better than it was 10 years ago?

Of course those who purchased for 180k will have negative equity but isn't the advice to stay put, keep your head down and pay the mortgage until prices start rising again which they surely will? I personally don't take that pessimistic view and I think most house prices will correct themselves with a drop of 10-20% over the next few years. In Cardiff for example family homes are likely to remain popular because there is still an undersupply.

It's only if there is a significant downturn in the economy and there is a substantial increase in unemployment that it will really hit home but aren't all the prredictions that there will be modest growth of approx 2% per annum? Even with inflation at approx 3% as it is now that means tougher times in terms of belt tightening but as I said before the lifestyle people have been leading over the last few years was unsustainable anyway.

I think we are in danger of making matters worse than they really are - I think that is symptomatic of the little boom time we have been living through over the past few years. It's easy to get used to buying what you want when you want but it's a little tougher going back to the way we were before.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 4th, 2008 - 5:39 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

The average growth forcast is 1.8% this year and about 1.4% next year. This is "real" growth and already takes into account inflation. So the economy as a whole will be getting 'richer' even during the slowdown.

The effect on family spending power is a little more complicated. Real disposable household income is likely to flatline - i.e. show no growth but show no fall either. Average 'official' pay awards are probably below inflation now, but together with increasing average seniority and a shift in jobs from lower skilled to higher skilled, and something known as "wage creep" (where wages actually grow faster than the agreed cost-of-living increment due to overtime payments, bonuses etc etc), real earnings amounts are probably treading water.

Will this feel like a recession though? Probably. Our economy, and more importantly, real incomes, have grown consistently for the last 16 years and even a stagnation will come as a shock. For all the whinging about Labour's "stealth taxes" making us "worse off", we have accustomed to having greater and greater purchasing power year on year and can now afford almost 1/3 more goods and services than 16 years ago from our take-home pay. Our expectations have run ahead and now that things are only "flat" and not "getting better" we're likely to feel worse off even if that isnt actually true.

Jeremy

Jul 4th, 2008 - 9:56 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Because we have had such a long period of growth you would have to be at least 35 yrs of age to remember the last recession as an adult, in 1990 when average mortgage rates were 14.5%. So for nearly 1/3 of the population this is a new experience and one that turns their expectations on their heads and it not yet a recession.

The credit crunch is manmade in London and New York but has happened at the worst of times with the oil price spiking. As oil is the basis of all plastics, transport fuels and most fertilisers it has the potential to turn a dip into a full blown recession as it affects the price of all goods. So watch the oil price as every $2 a barrel is about 1p-2p extra on every litre of fuel.

Although we use it more efficiently than in the 1970's 80's oil has the potential to derail our economy as we now import oil and the remaining North Sea output is declining by 4-5% every year. When we were exporting oil sold between $10 - $30 a barrel, helping to fund the UK deficit. Every barrel we now import cost $146. Just think for a moment what that does to the UK balance of payments and think who is going to lend us the money to purchase that fuel. This has the potential to turn nasty very quickly and the UK goverment is powerless. Doom-monger strikes

London-David

Jul 5th, 2008 - 1:54 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Incidentally, high oil prices can act to encourage investment in oil exploration and we are seeing this in the North Sea. We are just about in balance at the moment in terms of oil: if this had hit in a few more years then we would really have been screwed.

Kyle

Jul 5th, 2008 - 12:04 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I'm 36 and I remember having my first mortgage at that time. It was crap, but then I had a much smaller mortgage than I have now. Yes my salary has gone up hugely because I've had a good career but so has everything else.

Jeremy

Jul 6th, 2008 - 11:28 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

London-David the UK oil deficit was wiped out in 2007 because the Buzzard field came on line, which in North Sea terms was quite large (worldwide terms a tiddler) but the overall downward trend in oil production will continue into the future. Most offshore fields do not produce at a constant rate, they tend to peak in the first year or two and then decline at a constant 3-5%.

Also remember that even if you find a supergiant field the amount of oil you get out is governed by the flow rate. The production drill holes are only 7 inches in diameter and the pressure and porosity govern how much comes out.

While you are quite right that higher prices will drive investment that does not mean that oil production will increase since the oil has to be there in the first place to be pumped with the new investment. In any oil province you are likely to discover the largest fields first, finds then get increasingly smaller. UK production will not bounce upwards and the government has just woken upto the fact which partly accounts for the burst of activity, Gordon's visit to Jeddah, announcements on renewable energy, poetential high speed rail lines etc.

Even on a worldwide basis high prices do not necessarily mean high production. Perversely some countries may restrict production as they can have a higher income with lower production and save the oil like money in the bank. Nationalised oil accounts for 90% of supply so any investment by the oil majors is marginal. Announcements like the one from Saudi saying output will increase have to be placed in the context of the oil being produced and previous announcements in a similar vein in previous years. If new production is heavy or sour oil(heavy in sulphur) then most refineries cannot process it. Iran has 25 tankers siting in the Persian Gulf just waiting, either for a higher prices or more probably because the oil is sour and they cannot sell it because only a few refineries can deal with it.

This is not just an economics problem, politics and geology are the real drivers. To put it in context a high price for the wood teak does not guarentee a supply once all the trees have been cut down.

Alex

Jul 6th, 2008 - 12:09 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Jeremy

Clearly you are an oil professional. Are you based in Cardiff ?

Zach

Jul 6th, 2008 - 4:46 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Walking by the Millennium Centre yesterday and the Bellway Homes new apartment block opposite it. It is rising above the hoardings.
I would love to pop in and ask about purchasing an apartment, then when they are suitably interested in your custom and you get to the financial detail, ask about a deposit.?

Tell them that they misunderstand, a deposit from Bellways Homes in case they decide to pull out of this project as well.

Seriously, they must be giving some generous reductions to people mad enough to be still 'buying off plan'

Developers should have to lodge a bond with the local authority as a security.

URBANO

Jul 8th, 2008 - 10:22 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

"It certainly is a very severe downturn in the housing market"

Do I hear a bubbble bursting, Cambo?

So far as the economy is concerned, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 10:38 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Urbano.. you and "Large" on the other seem particularly keen to lambast economists as arrogant when making sweeping comments like your last one.

The truth is there is a great deal of uncertainty about the seriousness of the downturn - neither you nor me knows exactly how bad it will be. At the moment, most forecasters believe we will avoid an out-and-out recession and will see a few years of tepid growth and stagnant take-home pay. But what is certain is that the more doom-mongers shout and scream, the more likely they are to further unsettle consumers and risk bringing on a more serious downturn. And I think thats exactly what a lot of these people want; they've probably shorted the market, are hoping to mop up cheap property etc. Damn those losing their jobs.

A "bubble" is a word bandied about rather too much. I significant part of the 'overvaluation' of housing is, I believe, a reflection of the lower natural rate of interest in the more globalised and risk-diversified economy. After the credit crunch, we won't see risk premia fall as low as they were in 2004 - 2007, but I believe the opportunity to diversify, hedge and collateralise risk will reduce interest rates, and hence raise asset prices. Together with constrained supply of housing in this country, I think its fair to expect house rises to still grow at a rate faster than nominal GDP over the next 20 years.

Oh look: a bit of analysis rather than a gush of windbag harrumping. It might not always be right, but can I recall you predicting a crash back in about Jan 2006?

URBANO

Jul 8th, 2008 - 10:45 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Hmmm.....

Cambo- your post on Dec 14th

" Most economists don't think the housing bubble is going to suffer a serious crash; and neither have most been saying that for the last few years. Since about 2000, a single consultancy, Capital Economics, has been predicting doom and gloom in the housing market and the economy; and Tory-leaning middle class newspapers hype it up because a) they look a sensational story about property, their reader's obsession, and b) they hope it will hurt the government"

Hmmmmm.....

Jantra

Jul 8th, 2008 - 10:50 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Jeremy sounds more like an oil trader than anything esle

URBANO

Jul 8th, 2008 - 11:19 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Cambo

Hmmmm.....

I've been arguing with you about the existence of a housing bubble for at lease 2 years. You yourself admitted that in your post on March 3rd 2008:-

"You [i. me] have been predicting doom and gloom for the last 2 years, and whilst there is evidence of a slowdown and ..... You talk about confidence and credit problems but despite credit problems, it is still much easier and cheaper to come by at the time of previous crashes, and strong underlying demand remains …

You have always attempted to be the "expert" with pretty important comments like this....

"Dec 14th

"I, like most economists, are highly professional, and in many areas can analyse problems and provide solutions that a non-professional would be unable to do due to a lack of rigour and formality in their analysis"

Here's another of your expert opinions...

Jan 8th

"You'd get the impression that the inner Cardiff property market is about to implode: however, I'm a little dubious about this ……."

There's nothing wrong about getting things wrong,its just denying you have .

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 11:40 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I have been quite honest in changing my view and admitting that what I thought back in December has turned out to be too optimistic. I can't remember you ever admitting that you were incorrect in predictign an imminent correction in Jan 06, June 06, Jan 07 etc. Indeed at all times you have simply put back the date. Eventually if you keep doing this you will be right - because there will always be rises and falls. In the long run if you continue to predict a crash you'll always get it right eventually - that doesn't vindicate what you've been saying all along. I, like most practitioners, market watchers, and economists underestimated the size of the downturn in the credit and hence property markets. I believe much of this may be because, as always, the media focus on the loudest, shrillest and most alarmist voices (e.g. Capital Economics) to sell, and this impacts the economy. I think we may need to be more explicit in taking these confidence and self-fulfilling prophecy effects into account in economic models, but as yet the tools don't exist to do so in any compelling way.

I stand by my view that professional economists forecasts are ON AVERAGE better than the forecasts of individuals. Because knowledge is better than no knowledge in making predictions. And I stand by my view that many people make pronouncements that lack analytical rigour and that these then fail. Arguments against free trade, in favour of excessive taxation, in favour of a completely free market etc etc all fall into this area.

URBANO

Jul 8th, 2008 - 11:45 AM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

A bit of wriggling going on there, don't you think, Cambo?

Jantra

Jul 8th, 2008 - 1:09 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Dai

how about the forecasting ability of Management Accountants and Actuaries, who are trained to higher level on stochasitc modelling and forecasting?

Do economists forecast better than they? Economists are not the only people who forecast...I've been working with my Institute for some time on a predicitive economic model and to date its turned out to be pretty accurate in its assesments. It is not just economists that understand the economy you know, bankers tend to understand it better still, you could even argue that traders know it best of all, after all, if economists were so good at prediction, then why not play the LIFFE (pronounced life and never liffy) and earn a much better remuneration (and if munificence is your game, distribute it accordingly)

for the record, in my time I have worked in investment and corporate banking in the city and can tell you the best people at forecasting were the accountants of local boys (day traders), and never the economists. it was all about information flow which the traders had in abundance.

I do agree with you though, the more people talk down the economy the worse it will get...an analogy is the film 'paycheck' with Ben Affleck...the machine predicts an epidemic so anyone who is ill are rounded up thus creating the epidemic...perhaps now we (all) should actually talk up the chances of the economy as a whole rather than predict doom and gloom.

It is something I'm trying to instill in my client base, that you get feast and famine, but famine doesn't last forever and if you can live of lean bits of meat then you'll survive the next feast

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 2:33 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Traders are typically the best at forecasting the microeconomics of their markets: so a debt trader on CDOs, an FX trader on the euro-dollar exchange rate etc. Most investment banks employ economists, who work in conjunction with traders, to bring this together to do the macro-forecasting. If this didnt have an expected payoff, the banks surely wouldnt do so?

Wizard

Jul 8th, 2008 - 2:37 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Look at the state of the balance sheets of most our our banks at the moment.

Jantra

Jul 8th, 2008 - 3:10 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

balance sheets of banks are fine, their tier 1 capital requirements are fine, what they don't have is cash or other liquid instruments.

Dai
I was referring to forecasting, irrespective of micro or macro. i'm not doubting your profession by the way, I just think that economics is such an imprecise science that allows for far too many variables (because there are ultimately so many variables that can go wrong).

Economics has its place amongst the banking world but its not given as much credence by those who wield the power as much as people think. A fund manager will always have the final say of investment policy over the economist, despite what the economist is predicting (that si not to say the fund maanger will not follow the economists advice)

Wizard

Jul 8th, 2008 - 3:15 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

RBS's tier one may be fine now, but then they've just tapped shareholders like me for £12 billion pounds!

Jantra

Jul 8th, 2008 - 3:23 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

a fool and his money...

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 3:47 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Interesting to people who want to see - prices of properties on findanewhome.com. This shows the selling price of the many developments. Most intersting it to look at repeat sales of the new flats.

Some show very little growth (e.g. 12% between 2002 and 2007), some show rather stronger growth (e.g. 25% between 2004 and 2006). I've been looking at Altolusso and Landmark Place so far. I'm sure there are others to look at too. Also, either the figures are quite delayed in getting updated, or sales volumes of plumetted recently. If rentals are doing okay, perhaps buy-to-let landlords will sit tight and avoid selling during the downturn; constrained supply should help the market find a floor and then start growing again. Of course the danger is that then people rush onto the market trying to sell.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 4:32 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Incidentally, I've looked through a few more now. It seems out intuitions were wrong.

It is the expensive £250k plus flats that have been most likely to lose value whilst those initially selling for 120k - 150k seem to have increased in value. I've found a city wharf flat in 2004 for 350k going for 250k just in 2006. Thats always been an odd development to me: promoted as luxury but looking over the tired and drab Atlantic Wharf, smack bang next to a flyover.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 4:39 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Oops another post - a prediction here, if you wish. Looking at prices, if you bought in 2003 or earlier, you're probably going to be fine. If you paid list price 2004 or later, then if you sell in the next couple of years you'll probably suffer a bit. List price in 2006 or 2007, more sizeable falls and you should hold on if you can.

It seems prices took a big jump in 2002 2003 and 2004, before slowly increasing to about 2006 since when they have been flattish, except towars the lower part of the market where they have continued to rise.

Karl

Jul 8th, 2008 - 4:41 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I don't agree that Atlantic Wharf is tired and drab (save for that bloody awful hotel on the dockside that would look tired and drab in communist era Bulgaria). I went round there for the first time in years the other day and what struck me was how well constructed most of the buildings were and the judicious use of space. A lot of the buildings are on the face of it plain but as a whole I think this development is far more impressive than some newer ones in the Bay. I also like the element of family housing.

I agree the dockside needs a good clean up however.

Cambo_Dai

Jul 8th, 2008 - 5:50 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

The housing is fine - I actually quite like it. I guess I mean the waterside environment - its rather barren and the waterside walk is decidedly overgrown.

Spence

Jul 8th, 2008 - 9:27 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Not to mention uneven; the waterside path is covered in dips and hills, and gets really slippy when it's wet because parts of it are covered in moss. Definately a lack of maintainence on the councils part! Slightly off topic, are the fountains next to County Hall ever actually on? You see them lit up in promotional shots quite often but I've never seem them on.

RichrdT

Jul 9th, 2008 - 1:47 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

The Atlantic Wharf housing may be fine but... I walked down there on a Saturday afternoon a couple of months ago. As usual the place was deserted, that is until three "yoofs" appeared on bikes, eyeing me up.
Fortunately they passed by, but I felt very vulnerable. If you get pushed in that dock it’s a certain drowning, there's almost nowhere to scramble out and even if someone was around to help there's no life belt to chuck in. Not a recommended walk alone any time of the day.

Peter

Jul 9th, 2008 - 4:17 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I have an apartment in the Water Quarter which as you all know lies at the South end of the atlantic wharf 'lake'. Walking around there is pretty dodgy, and the walkways are uneven, overgrown and uninviting in the extreme. You see a few brave joggers, but honestly I wouldn't advise any lady to walk around there at any time of day

Kyle

Jul 9th, 2008 - 6:23 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

It isn't just us suffering in terms of proposed developments not starting or being unfinished.

The Lumiere project in Leeds is on hold.

http://www.propertyweek.com/story.asp?sectioncode=297&storycode=3117937&c=1

juggernaut

Jul 9th, 2008 - 10:45 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

Spence, in answer to your question about the fountains. Yep they are on quite a lot. Walk past them in the morning and during lunch - very nice when the weather's good!

Cambo_Dai

Jul 14th, 2008 - 12:15 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

I took a swim in the new pool this Sunday, and on the way back to town stopped off at Prospect Place / Bayside to try and view a flat. Anyway, I asked about a 1 bed and they are still selling them at £160k (only 1 left mind) and it was the measly size of 450 sq feet. Now my dad's place in Whitchurch is about 900 and is not much more than that. I'd know what I'd buy!

Incidentally, one beds have done the best to keep their value in Cardiff bay. Since 2004, the average 2 bed+ seems to have "trod water", whilst 1 beds have risen a bit. But they sell for about £140k-ish so this is overvalued.

James

Jul 14th, 2008 - 4:23 PM

Re: Half Finished Tower Block Abandoned

It is a shame that Lumiere is on hold. I'd be absolutely gutted if I were a Leedite/Leedsionian, whatever they are.

It is a stunning looking building and a real coup for Leeds to have had what would apparently be Europes tallest residential tower. However, Leeds has always been mentioned in articles as the premier example of a city with an abundance of flats, so I suppose it's no surprise really.

Also, I know that Bristol Rovers new stadium/student housing has been postponed, because a developer pulled out.

Rest assured it is happening everywhere, but obviously, it doesn't make the news down here.