http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_principal_areas_by_population

Including monmouthshire and carmarthenshire, the population os South Wales is 1.97 million Jantra. If you exclude rural carmarthenshire it is 1.9 million. Wrong again Jantrum

Do you really think that taking the subsidy from ATW will help anyone? How much would that add to the average journey cost? We already have some of the most expensive rail fares in Europe.

I am amazed that ATW need such huge subsidies, how they cannot make it a profitable business I do not know, but just taking the subsidy away will only make things worse, reduce passenger numbers and leave an even greater gaping hole.

I appreciate it was an idea, and I agree that we should not be subsidising ATW by anywhere near such huge amounts of money and that this money would be far better off invested in improving the infrastructure. The problem is, that by taking away the subsidy, the lost revenue will likely result in hugely inflated fares, which may significantly impact passenger numbers. Thus revenue would again be hit, only leading to further fare increases. I think we need to find the money from elsewhere (free prescriptions?, Severn bridge tolls post 2015?), turn the Welsh rail franchise into a profitable business and then withdraw the subsidy. Doing anything to increase the cost of the service before any improvements are seen will be of no benefit. Fares are ever rising and the service of the valley lines (I commute on these each day) is way below what I would expect for my money. Unless we see evidence of real improvements people simply will not accept further rises.

OK, so Jantra, I may be wrong on this, and this is only a quick calculation, but:

2007-08 ATW - 846.1 million passenger km (from Wikipedia)

Lets assume the subsidy of £174 million applied in the same year.

That is 174/846 = 20 p per km subsidy

According to the Daily Mail (ok, so probably less accurate than wikipedia, but all I could find quickly), the average season ticket price in the UK is 14 p per km.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2097089/Britains-railways-expensive-comfortable-efficient-Europe.html

So taking away the entire subsidy would lead to rail fares having to more than double?

I have probably made a glaringly obvious error somewhere, so please correct me if so!

George

you confuse me with someone esle. i'm happy to take the figures at face value as you are stating a point, which i think is valid given the numbers. sure there is probably some margin of error, but I reckon you're right in that pence per mile would probably be near, if not double.

so what is the answer...if we keep the subsidy and not invest in infrstructure then we fall further behind. If we don't keep hte subdsidy we run the risk of falling pax numbers.

its a tough one but something must be done sooner rather than later.

Well I think there needs to be a balance. ATW profit to the tune of £15 million a year from running the Wales franchise. This is after getting their £170 million public subsidy. So I think half of the profit should be ring fenced and invested in infrastructure (tracks not trains, the rolling stock is the responsibility of ATW alone). Then we have free prescritions, make these means-tested, for chronic conditions only and for only drugs that cannot be purchased cheaper over the counter, lets say this halves the cost. That's £7.5 million, plus £15 million. Then we can take a cut from the Severn bridge tolls when they revert to public ownership (so price them at cost of maintenance of the bridge plus 50 p - £1 which is ring fenced for transport infrastructure). No idea what this would make, but would assume a good few million a year. On top of this the subsidy should be cut by 2-5% each year, resulting in a gradual withdrawal of the subsidy.

ATW really should focus on the valleys lines. If this isn't making them an absolute fortune then they are doing something very wrong. But, it could be even more profitable. Trains are always rammed at peak times, which does nothing to encourage more commuters to use the service. As far as I'm aware there is no charge to park your car at the stations either. This should be changed to a nominal sum which can be used to fund more park and ride facilities further up the valleys.

A little thinking outside the box would help too. Why don't we see adverts on the side of trains like we do on buses? Separate rates for seated vs standing (ok, hard to police, would probably need separate carriages). Figure out which services are the most/least profitable and adjust timetables accordingly. If you don't use it, you lose it, can't justify running 2 trains an hour for a handful of people a journey (I'm looking at the City Line here!).

It always seems to be a catch 22. We need more investment but where should the money come from?

EDIT. The bridges cost £15 million a year and raise £72 million a year

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-12054654

So, reducing the tolls to around 1/4 of the current level should cover costs, raise £3 million a year, plus associated benefits of reducing this cost barrier to Wales.

Jantra I appreciate some of your views on Enterprise and being more buisness friendly in Wales - there is much room for improvement but on this issue, the British Goverment is totally overlooking Wales.
Over 3,000 miles of electrified mainline in the GB, not a single mile in Wales.You say we want the best deal, but we are only looking for a fair deal.
If Wales were to get investment in proportion to the population.
So total UK spend - total UK population in proportion to Wales population and Wales budget spend on Transport.
In one in thirty people whom live in the UK, we get nowhere near one in thirty of the UK budget on transport.
I am really confident that if research went into it you would see the Welsh deficiency in investment has an inordinate negative result.
Cardiff, Llanelli, Neath Port Talbot Swansea, Newport, Bristol, Gloucster, Bath Hereford should all be as well connected as other parts of the UK.

if you want to keep scores on the debate of the Electrification of the Railways.
its 0 - 3,000 and Wales is losing

Ci Snoop

its up to WG to spend what budget they have in areas they think are important. We have had some devolved responsibility for 6 years for transport.

prior to 1997 we did alright under Barnett, we got more out than we put in. I appreciate central government didn't really help Wales but what do you expect them to do when we seem reluctant to help ourselves.

whenver a suggestion is made you can guarantee we will hear the naysayers and harbingers of doom come out and blether on about how unfair life is and that we'll have to cut this and that. Well that is life, tough choices need to be made.

I work in England and the attitude here is bvery different even though we are only 40 miles away. There have been cuts and people have suffered, but by and large there is a tacit acceptance that something needed to be done to structural reform our economy. Thankfully we ar spared such long term structural reform in Wales by the vanguard of all that is righteous - the Welsh Labour party. they are much more interested in saying how they are protecting Wales from the cuts rather than coming up with policies that can ensure Wales can develop. Whether you are left wing or right wing, one thing you'll notice is the number of English only policies that are being implemented - they may or may not work but at least the politicians have seen there is need for change and have been thinking about it. none of that for us though, more of the same please.

I'm a big fan of right to buy, it means cash freed up to build more houses. Yes I appreciate social housing stock may go down but overall housing stock rises which is the end result. did you know that in wales the discount is £16k whereas in England it is now up to £75k. Add on the English adding presumed consent to planning simplfiying the process and you can see just how they are assisiting the construction industry. due to planning being easier land will be cheaper meaning more affordable housing being built.

thats not for us in Wales though.

do we want to carry on subsidising all and sundry or do we want to say enough is enough and we need real infrastructure development? give someone a fish (give them a subsidy) and you feed them for a day, teach him to fish (create the right business environment) and you feed him for life.

our politicians aren't really accountable, our media are useless, it takes the likes of Owen (or was it danowens - apologies) to actually critique the comic submission for GIB. nothing in our media except plenty of discussion about Ryan jones staying with the Ospreys.

honestly, it is depressing living the Welsh side of the border. There really is little hope that WG will make it better

I'm not sure liberalising planning policy in England is a panacea for all housing ills. I don't know the exact details but there is a possible case of unintended consequences.

A developer buys a parcel of land and gets planning permission. For little outlay he/she then increases the value of the land. This is then an asset of his/her company and the rise in value is reflected in increased profits upon which he/she receives a dividend. Easy money. But where is the incentive or compulsion to actually build? Until the market overheats itself into a bubble and people pay silly money for property (as per the noughties) whats to stop the developer sitting on land banks all over the country waiting for the right time?

Getting planning permission more quickly does not guarantee more houses will be built. In many cases its against a developers interest to build houses as with more supply there is less demand and with less demand profit margins go down.

I don't see why more thought can't be given to a land tax. If you don't develop within say 2 or 3 years of either purchasing the land or obtaining planning permission you pay tax on the land. There is the incentive to build or at least not buy land you have little or no intention of developing.

Aren't we something like 750k homes short of what we need or will need in the near future? Can anyone see Redrow, Bellway etc building in that volume knowing full well that the amount they will obtain for each unit will go through the floor?

I'm no expert and there may be perfectly valid reasons why a land tax is undesirable or unworkable (other than vested interests lobbying for all they are worth) but I don't see relaxed planning laws working to solve the housing crisis unless there is a huge uptake in self build or social housing makes a comeback allowing HA's/Councils (who do not have to satisfy shareholders) to build houses more easily.

Karl

you cannot pay a dividend if there is no cash coming in! even if the value of the land is increased due to planning consent, it is only shown in the books as an unrealised gain - its not even taxable until it is sold and realised.

anyway, the point is that in the SE England an acre of agricultural land costs something like £15k, whereas if it has consent it is £1m. madness. this is due in no small part to the time taken to get land through the planning process. if land is freed up and presumed consent is given to all sustainable developments (sustainable is defined at a local not national level) then the loal needs are catered for and planning is assumed where local criteria are met.

this is an excellent policy in theory - it allows local policy to define what the bar is for presumed consent. the proof of the pudding though...

anyway, i never said construction is a panacea for all ills...but construction does unerpin our economy in a way no other industry does...it really is a bellwether for the economy as a whole.

more new houses = lower prices = movement in the market = freed up equity = pumping the wider economy with new purchases

it will take time but I reckon this with the new right to buy scheme extended up to £75k will see new builds happening all over England which creates jobs and new homes that are badly needed.

You're making the assumption that new houses will automatically come about as a result of relaxed planning laws. But as you rightly state more houses equals lower prices. That works against the interests of the volume housebuilders in the country. They have land banks all over the UK - unless they are compelled why would they rush out to build and flood the market? As a business that would cretinous and contrary to the interests of their shareholders.

The only compelling reason they have at the moment is the market ie. if there is a housing bubble. They are driven by profits not by a need to house the nation. Nothing wrong with that but if the housing issue is to be solved then leaving it entirely to the market isn't going to work.

Also the point you make about land in the south east is a pertinent one. The value is increased massively if planning permission is obtained. If I own a few acres outside Buckinghamm and get planning permission I then flog to Redrow for a million. If I can't get a million because the market is down I just sit on it until the market turns. Could be 2 years could be 10. As long as I don't let the planning permission lapse I just bide my time. In the interim no houses get built.

If Redrow do buy for a million then you know they will wait until the height of the market before they build otherwise they won't turn much of a profit. Until the market dictates (and that means a bubble) no houses get built.

What that could mean is that planning permission is granted due to relaxed planning policy but little actual building gets done because there is no financial penalty for sitting on land which has that planning permission.

You also assume that a huge part of the difference between the value of agricultural land at £15k an acre and land with planning at £1m an acre is down to convoluted planning laws. I've no doubt that some of it is but I think the location of the land with planning permission is the key factor here.

The relaxation in planning laws in England may be a masterstroke. The proof is in the pudding as you say. And I don't pooh pooh it as a knee jerk reaction to a coalition policy. But I don't see how it will vastly improve the housing situation. Whilst it may lead to Redrow et al being able to build houses in theory in practice there is no incentive for them to do so until they want. Basically they dictate the market and will build when its the right time for them and not for the populace at large.

Out of interest why do you think a land tax is a bad idea (assuming of course that you do).

land tax maybe a good idea but what happens if land banks are built up and then we have a crash. no one wants to build and they are left with large tax bills that they cannot pay as they have no cash. land reverts to the crown and cannot be sold.

all that has happened is you have confiscated the land from private to public ownership - which I'm sure you'll know is against my libertarian views.

the tax should be on the sale of the property as it is now with incentives for selling within a few years, such as enhanced tax relief. therefore if you don't build within say 2 years you get normal relief but if you build within 2 years you get enhanced relief

Some info...

Rail infrastructure is a non-devolved matter (although management of the franchise is – established on a no growth basis by SRA in 2003 then “deveolved” to Wales in 2006)

DfT currently finalising High Level Output Specification (HLOS) for next control period (CP5 2014 – 2019) for England and Wales as a whole

WG (with industry partners and DfT) have prepared two very robust and professional business cases – one for the electrification of the entire valley line network and another for the GWML to Swansea…I estimate total cost with optimisation bias ~£500M

I understand BCR for both well in excess of that calculated and published for HS2 (which was 1.7 I think for Phase 1). Other economic benefits can also be realised through valleys electrification.

Welsh schemes will be up against other schemes in England for limited pot of funds (eg Transpennine electrification, MML and Northern Hub)

Current negotiations between WG and DfT to try and ensure the valleys and Swansea schemes are included – no guarantees. Its all about the politics;

Electrification will deliver >20% operational savings
Could be aligned with new fleet and new franchise ~2018

Also – £32Bn HS2, defined as a UK scheme, will include support from Welsh taxpayers ~£1.5Bn over 15 years.

Thanks M for your "deus ex machina" like ending to this story, although this sadly is real life and your intervention has shown that real life rarely has happy endings, especially if you are welsh and expecting your fair share from the Westminster government,

Wasn't Trans-Penine electrification announced in the budget?

God help us if the Welsh Government's case for electrification is as 'robust' as the bid for the Green Investment Bank!

That 'robust' bid (Carwyn & Edwina's description) was full of spelling mistakes, grammatical errors and was about as 'robust' as a wet paper bag.

Surely there must be some half-decent Civil Servants in BETS?

jantra - happy to be corrected, but I thought the SRA was broken up in 2006 with part of Welsh infrastructure passed over to WG (hence the reopening on the Ebbw Vale line).

i do like correcting you, as you are wrong here, the Wales and Borders Franchise was devolved in 2006, infrastructure was not until last year. Ebbw line and VoG were directly funded by WG.

the rest odf what you say i concur with, quite upsetting, in terms of comparing Cardiff to the rest of the uk, the WG City regions report is intere4sting in those comparisons, Cardiff is more a Preston! would put the link eher, but its quite intersting so may add it as a new topic in its own right.

M - thanks foir that blindin information.
No matter what political allegiance one has, it is high time that Infrastructure was devolved to Cardiff Bay.
Westminster is ripping us off heavy.
Over 3,000 miles of track and not a single mile of it in Wales.
No trams, no underground, just one motorway.
Bristol Airport is in a ten mile radius of 4 Motorways, no wonder it is attracting more airlines than Cardiff.
We are continually being neglected by the English Government.
Wake up Wales.

The reason that spending is higher in Wales than England is largely down to ESA, DLA, JSA and pension payments being paid to a greater proportion of the population. It really is that simple. We are poorer here and need higher levels of welfare and benefits.

Not sure if this story has been linked here, and a little off topic, but what do you make of this report Jantra?

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/cardiffonline/cardiff-news/2012/03/31/cardiff-bay-is-on-the-right-track-says-economist-brian-morgan-91466-30663016/

In the Western Mail too! If you ask me it doesn't really say much, and it's quite amusing that it's a relatively short piece, probably about a fifth of the length of the average rugby article... but just wondering what you thoughts are...

so what we are saying is that:-

WG must stop focussing on populist policies and start focussing on infrastructure
WG must reduce red tape and needless bureaucracy
WG must create an environment that encourages businesses
WG must do more to encourage indigenous entreprenuers
Welsh entrepreneurs need access to start up and development capital

have I got the above wrong? it seems to me as if the above has been said by many (ok one - me) one this board for the past 5 years.

I would not say that Cardiff Bay/WG have got it right, but they are changing focus from death by paperwork - employ as many as possible in the public sector to ensure funds flow in to the Welsh economy. however, Rome most certainly was not built in a day and as the article suggests, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. If WG previous performance is anything to go by, what will happen is we will see additional funding spent on bolstering the Welsh economy by creating more non jobs in the Welsh public sector.

You flatter yourself by suggesting that you are the only one on here calling for more investment in infrastucture, a pro business enviroment, reducing bureaucracy and encouraging indigenous entrepeneaurs. I'd say pretty much everyone who has posted on here calls for one, more or all of the above on a regular basis. It's just you tend to repeat yourself.......

more importantly than all this nonsense about making Wales a better place for everyone, what do you think of Gavin Henson's latest indcident?

clearly a misunderstood man and as a great welsh rugby player I think it is criminal that FlyBe are treating him like an ordinary joe - do they not know who he is and what he is capable of?

I have to say I am very disappointed that only 16 pages were devoted to this story in todays papers. We need to know more.

I suppose the fact that the six nations are over and no one really gives a shit about rugby now means our rugby loving media have to fill up their papers somehow.

I do read what other people post Karl, there are comments from people such as 'sick of jantra', or the ad hominem attacks from the likes or Eric, George and Mr Appeasement (although these have abated somewhat lately). Hypercelt and his comments that he sees my name and just doesn't read them anymore. thats his prerogative but such comments hardly add to the debate.

I do listen - just recently we discussed public sector pay differential across the UK regions and you articulated very well why it would be bad for Wales. I listened and took on board and cetainly did not discard what you said.

I have no problem listening to alternate points of view if they are articulated, but quite often posters on this forum add no analysis or critique and just revert to left wing labour shite as a standard response. I will never accept responses such as those although will listen to reasoned argument. my background is astro physics and the training is one of reasoned logical argument and not just saying it is so.

I always attempt to try and explain my position and whilst I don't expect everyone to agree, I would expect if people disagree they could at least attempt (as you have done) to explain the rationale for their own viewpoint. If explanation is beyond some people then there is no real debate.

the issue is - at least I think it is - that I am moderately right wing economically and this is a contentious issue for some as I happen to believe Wales path would be better served following the capitalist mantra than some pseduo chomskysit dogma. certainly capitalism provides a better standard of living on average.

i wonder if we can have a new branch of political thinking called hartism?

RE valleys electrification. Watch this space, a lot of people are working very hard to ensure Wales gets a slice of the next HLOS pie. As I said a very professional job done on business cases.

Errrrrrrrm, it's obvious Jantra. The network of lines, tunnels, cuttings, embankments and stations is already there and has been for getting on for two centuries. There has been some investment on new signalling for the existing network. With,as M claims, half a £bil of investment we could have a 100+ station ultramodern metro serving over a million people. To build it from scratch would be many £billions. It's a no brainer (and I am going to pre-empt your dig at the lack of brains at WG so don't bother)

Over 3,000 miles of electrified track not a single mile in Wales.
How are we getting a good return from Westminster?
We are paying 1.5 billion for a railline that no one wants, especially in the Chilterns.
Infrastructure should be devoloved, surely this should be the concenus across the Welsh political Spectrum.
The impact it would have across the valleys, south Wales and the capital is immense.
Scotland is moving forward as they have devolved Transport, we are paying for English Schemes.
Look at all the Motorways that stop just before the border.
We are not on a level playing field.
Their are four motorways in Bristol alone.
The same number of more in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, we have one stretch for the whole of Wales.
Westminster will always look after England.
We need a capital with balls the same size as Belfast, Edinbourgh or Dublin.

attacks?? attacks?? just correcting your erros old boy and they are aplenty.
Quite like some of your arguments and its not just you criticising WG, but some have slightly more open views perhaps and give a bit more credit where its due?
I give WG a bit more slack as I don't see westminister as the panacea you see - olympics planned for what was it 2.4 billion and now coming in under budget at 9.3 billion?? the ministry of defence funding diasters costing billions?? what was the recent audit report on the shared service centres?? the various IT overspends?? need I go on?
WG is a fledgling organisation, should it have time, maybe, maybe not and that depends on your ideology - but if your not going to get involved - see city regions page - then what do you expect.

Eric

I am not looking to Westminster. I only reference Westminster because some see them as the root of all our ills. I have asked the question before...when does the Welsh economic malaise cease being the responsibility of Westminster and start being the responsibility of the Senedd?

FWIW I care not for Westminster for they have devolved running certain aspects of my every day life. I dislike Westminster for it, they really should not have handed the lunatics the keys to the asylum but that's another argument. I wish we could have more grown up politics here in Wales rather than ever mention what we do/do not get from Westminster. We get a bunch of cash, it is up to us on how we use it.

if we elect baboons to office then we cannot get upset when all they show us is their arse.

so you are looking to europe for governance then???

can no longer tell what you are for!!

Snoop lives further down the mainline in San Portablo.
Visited Cardiff today had to go to Ikea.
Some of youse are knocking the Assembly Government that has been here since 97.
Being as this is a development forum may I remind you that
The Millenium Stadium,
The Millenium Centre,
St David's Hotel,
St David's Shopping Centre,
Alto Lusso
Riga rossa,
Century Wharf,
Sleeperz, The Cafe Quarter,
Cardiff City Stadium
the Senedd
3 Grand Slam's
Five FA Cup Finals
and you know the rest
none of it was here in 97.
Devolve Transport - demand a fair budget,
lets not pay for the Westcoast line, the east coast line, and everything else in England
let us sort out the infrastructure here in Wales and watch buisness in south Wales thrive.
Cardiff needs to get some of Swansea's swagger, pass and move and bamboozle.
A strong Capital with the grace of Bellamy, the Speed of Calzaghe, the voice of Church, the diva of Bassey, the stories of Dahl, the Swagger of Bale, the Slam of Welsh rugby, the flavour of brains, the growth of Admiral, the creativity of the boiler House.
Wake up Caerdydd - its time tp lead the way.
Cymru am byth, dyma hyd

Just out of interest, is the healthcare system in Germany public or private? The NHS in the UK is a public sector employer, with 1.7 million staff, (apparently the 5th largest employer in the world). Could this account for at least some of the difference in public sector employee ratios between countries?