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Jantra, time spent standing in cramped trains is unproductive. And you are really showing your chauvinism by suggesting that housework is nothing to do with economic productivity. Electrified trains can carry more people, more quickly, more comfortably and more reliably. This will help to increase economic output. More people will be able to.work in the places the trains serve. Do you really think that all these electrified train networks have been built for the sake of projecting a positive image? Why not just gold plate all of the buildings, or hire beautiful models to wander the streets smiling at people? I give you permission to use these two policies in the manifesto for your centre-right, business-focused party, chum
I think electrification of the railways is also a compoment of a much larger integrated public transport scheme which has loosely been described as a Cardiff Metro.
A sometimes poster on here, Mark, is heavily involved in developing these proposals. I don't want to break confidences or tread on his area but as I recall electrification of the GWML makes electrification of the Valleys lines much easier (and cheaper). The Valleys Lines electrification is then a key component of a wider public transport system which involves opening new lines (or re-opening disused lines), bus transport, park and ride facilities etc. Not just too and from Cardiff but inter valley as well.
I guess what I'm saying is that electrification isn't an end in itself just a major component of a wider scheme that has those elements you identify that will (or should) improve economic output. The proposals that I have seen are quite well developed and costed. They also appear eminently do-able.
If Mark is reading this thread then hopefully he can add some detail to the broad outline above. He really is the go to man on this topic.
Mr Appeasement
standing in cramped trains is not unproductive to the economy. If my hours of work are 9-5 then I have to be in work from those hours. If I am not then i have to make up those hours elsewhere replacing lost productivity. so where is the lost productivity? as Karl has alluded to, it is quality of life.
it is very easy to say there will be economic benefits - its a buzzword or phrase - but when you actually try and quantify what those benefits are or how they arise, it becomes a lot more difficult to place any sort of meaning to it.
FWIW I have read the IWA report twice previously. I agree that electrification will bring improvements to the infrastructure, but I doubt in itself it will increase economic output.
You have not provided any evidence to suggest that there is a direct correlation between using electric trains and an increase in GDP/GVA (or some other economic measure)
Jantra, standing on a cramped train for 40 minutes means that you are not producing anything (apart from sweat) for 40 minutes. Sitting on a less cramped electric train for 30 minutes might mean you can send a few emails to work contacts. A gain in productivity. With the ten minutes you save each wsy every day, you could use to develop a business idea, mow the.lawn, read to your child, go jogging, develop wearisome trolling arguments on the internet. Some of that time saved by some people will increase productivity and economic output.
just so i've not misunderstood what you are saying...all these valleys folk who commute into Cardiff have jobs that require laptops, blackberry's etc and can send work emails when on the train?
is that what you are suggesting?
Aren't the uk government expecting that the high speed rail link between london and brum to yield large economic benefits.
Mightn't this be similar, albeit on a different scale.
I guess that the less time spent commuting, the more people are prepared to make that journey, effectively increasing the work pool and access to customers.
Also the more free time you have the.more likely you are going to go and.spend some money after work.
Jantra, less time travelling=more time for potentially working. The self employed who use public transport will benefit. One of my family members is a consultant who divides his time between Cardiff and London. The delays on the unreliable GWR have cost him business. He is looking forward to electrification as he will be able to be more productive ie do more work that would have goneoto consultants in other parts of the UK or abroad. That was an answer to your question, Jantra
this contradicts what you have previously posted. you said that being sat on trains workers can email - a virtual desk if you like. now you are saying being sat on a train means that your consultant friend/relative is losing business. I assume that GWR passengers have no restrictions on laptops and other devices - in fact, i know this to be the case since I travelled to Aylesbury last week to work using GWR
Jantra, yes oh wise one, you are indeed correct and the rest of the world is so wrong. Be that as it may,my close relative is an arbitrator and expert witness, there are some jobs he's had to turn down because he couldn't make the meeting because of problems with the trains. Panels and Hearings aren't interested iin why your train was 3 hours late, and I know that unreliable trains, engineering work and breakdowns have cost him work. He can't use the facilities on the train to be at the meeting in person. Trains don't have matter transferers which can "beam" him into meetings when he is delayed. He sometimes travels first class on FGW sometimes he pays himself and goes second class. He always has a seat booked,regardless of which class of carriage he's in. So he always has the opportunity to work on inter-city journeys. He doesn't use Valley Lines to commute at rush hour, but if he did he would probably be more productive on a reliable,fast,spacious electric train. I will ask him about it the next time that I see him and let you know what he reckons.
Eric
good morning to you.
If i may say, you're just being daft. In this thread I have asked for evidence of tangible economic development as a result of developing the rail infrastructure. for example, evidence pointing to an increase in jobs, new factories, new offices, an increase in consumer demand, an increase in exports....all the things that show an economy is increasing in size.
Other than whooly political answers that electrification will bring economic benefits, none of the evidence has indicated how these benefits will arise. burden of proof is everything.
I am not suggesting that new infrastructure does not bring better connectivity between peoples thus improving trade relations, but where existing infrastructure is being upgraded, then my personal opinion (if I am allowed to have one) is that due to lack of evidence to suggest otherwise, the only real tangible 'economic' benefit is the soft benefits such as improvements to quality of life rather than hard benefits such as new factories, new office blocks, more jobs...the type of measures that show an increase in economic output.
I do not believe everything the media or politicians or any form of agency happens to tell us. i prefer to see the evidence and look at it and form an opinoion. Thus far in this thread there has been no evidence of any tangible benefits to the economy other than a few presentations saying 'there will be economic benefits'. That is not evidence, that is a statement of opinion.
Mr Appeasement
so you close relative couldn't make the meeting to act as an independent expert....I assume the meeting organisers found another expert witness to undertake the task. If this is the case, there is no lost economic output, just a shift of output to another party.
Re 3,
Scotland gets a percentage of rail spend. Wales doesn't, so it is classed as 'England and Wales'. Very little of that spend goes to Wales, so it is Welsh people paying for rail improvements in England, more than anything else.
We are paying for crossrail, we are paying for high speed rail. A bit pissed off with it to be honest.
Yawn yawn yawn yawn. 'wales receives more than its fair share'. Based on what? pure population numbers? You can't base the amount of welfare/benefit payments an area should receive based solely on the number of people living there. It must be calculated on need. Wales has higher levels of social deprivation and thus requires a greater relative proportion of benefit payments, than say London.
If the private sector bothered to invest in Wales and create jobs, then perhaps some of these people wouldn't need benefits. Spending on benefits should not prevent investment in infrastructure.
George
I totally agree, benefits and welfare should be based on need not population. However, we cannot expect our 5% of the population to receive say 7% of the welfare budget without seeing a reduction elswhere. Wales already receives £9bn more per annum in funding than it contributes in tax receipts. Yet some people think this is not enough. It appears we want all the modern benefits that the hard workers of the South East get, but we also want the benefits of a welfare system that we hardly contribute towards.
as for your comment regarding the private sector...perhaps it is because Wales is not seen to be business friendly, too bureaucratic, too focussed on developing an English funded public sector whilst doing not a lot to develop its own indigenous private sector. I find it absurd that you would question why the private sector does not invest in Wales? The private sector will invest where they think they will get maximum utility. If that means certain areas see lower private sector activity and investment then it is up to government using the levers of power to apploy market corrections or policy changes. In Wales we have not seen anything near what is required in the last 12 years - a charge laid directly at WG for they are responsible for economic development. Wales is not seen as business friendly and it is not seen as being entreprenuerial and we have to change that culture. We will not do that having a Trotskyist in charge of ecomomic development.
The perception (and I stress the word perception) regarding the WLA does put off business from being based here.
I have said on this forum that WG went about developing the welsh private sector the wrong way. Rhodri morgans preferred approach was to work with Entreprenuer Action (itself liquidated due to insolvency), Venture Wales, Business eye, Business in Focus et al. These organisation would take from from WG, cream a bit off for themselves, then pay 'mentors' to draft business plans for business start ups. 12 months later if those businesses were still going WG would claim that due to their intervention and their policies they were creating an entrepreneurial culture. The fact was lost on WG and its ministers that the businesses may not have needed business plans drafted in the first instance and that following the creation of the business plans, no further mentoring was provided. It was a complete fallacy that this type of support created new business start ups. it just gave money to the Venture Wales etc al and the mentors
Thankfully WG are now adopting a more pragmatic approach targetting the larger more established businesses within the SME sector...such businesses who trade up with multinationals and trade down with local based business. The sort of businesses that actually drive economic growth. WG were more interested in created 'new starts' as opposed to creating sustainable growth and economic development. Death by measurement in effect.
Despite Wales mirroring the UK and transferring to a service based economy, WG and its Finance Wales offshoot have only recently allowed B2B business investment....its this sort of delayed reaction that has kept Wales back. This goes full circle....the private sector does not invest in Wales because it is not business friendly. that is the long and short of it. Create the correct business environment and the investment will come
Give me the infrastructure investment so that the welfare payments might not be needed.
London is set up to succeed, and surprise, surprise it largely does (albeit with highh unemployment and shocking inequality).
Wales is set up to fail, and by and large does.
take away the welfare payments so that we can invest...viscious circle. Wales does not want to lose its welfare but it wants the investment. Something has to give.
Wales does have potential, but needs to understand that it must produce more and contribute more to the central pot before it can justify having any more to spend.
Wales lagging behind England in attracting private industry has to be pqartly a function of poorer transport infrastructure surely?
Historically it certainly has.
aA half decent airport would be better, but I'll take this.
Colour Wolf
you raise a valid point, and it ties in with my comment that the government should apply market corrections or change policy. For example, the 10 borough councils that make up Greater M/cr pooled their resource and purchased ringway - which is now the largest airport outside of London. The councils appreciated the benefits of having a world class airport on their doorstep and took the bull by the horns. Connectivity with the rest of the world has business advantages.
Unfortunately for Wales, CCC/VoGC et al were not so bold or forward thinking. ringway shows what can be done when governments get involved. Ringway exists solely for the purpose of Greater M/cr with all profits being reinvested. Can we say the same about CWL given Abertis invest nothing and even our own ministers are embarrassed to use it?
We could be bold in Wales, but blaming the English for all our ills is apparently much easier
Yes oh wise one, you are indeed correct and the rest of the world is so wrong.
see here
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/rdg/webia/webmethodology/sportwidereconomicbenefi3137.pdf
and a good example project here;
www.crossrail.co.uk/assets/download/743 have a look at this, loads about the productivity and economic benefits of infrastructure
Eric
All I have asked are what are the economic benefits and where is the evidence? I have not said none exist, just that there is no evidence.
you have provided a report relating to crossrail (NB the other link does not work). this report identifies four key areas:
1. Move to More Productive Jobs
2. Pure Agglomeration
3. Increase in labour force participation
4. Impacts on imperfect competition
lets assume that the above are typical examples of economic benefits of a major infrastructure project, do we have any such evidence that electrifying Cardiff - Paddington will bring the very same benefits. For want of repeating myself, it is fine to suggest that other projects have benefits (because the evidence says so), but I am concerned with electrification of the Valleys and would like to see the analysis, evidence and conclusions relating to that particular project.
I feel you misunderstand my statement when I say I have not seen any economic benefits. I was referring to electrification of the Valleys lines. I thought it was a given that we were talking about the Valley lines, I didn't realise you were talking more widely.
anyway, back to my question, is there any evidence that electrifying the valley lines will bring economic benefits? I have not seen any evidence or analysis except political bluster.
are you saying that because someone has suggested that cross rail will bring economic benefits to London you have concluded that electrification of the valley lines will bring economic benefits to south Wales?
Final question, why so much angst in your responses? do you think it might be better for all concerned if you adopted a more cordial approach to your responses?
will try again
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/rdg/webia/webmethodology/sportwidereconomicbenefi3137.pdf
my tone is thanks old boy. I suppose your posts are confusing as you jump around a lot and when pulled up you chnage tack. Your posts to date here do infer that you do not buy into the genral concept of infrastructure improvements having a productivity effect, these documents should indeed answer a few of your wqueries, read them, analyse and respond please. As for valley lines elcytrification, it is a concept currently based on other similair projects, I believe the analysis is going on as we speak, M I beleiev has mentioned he has sight of such work?? lets wait and see it shall we, but we can take note of similair schemes and infer simialir benefits surely?
still bad link Eric
so in that post you have stated that (i) there are not quantifiable economic benefits as of yet and that there is no analysis of note and that (ii) you reckon even if there were the valleys electrification could garner the same type of benefits as cross rail (the train line running through one of the most advanced cities in the world)
Eric
The devil is in the detail. I asked if there was any evidence of economic benefits of electrification (of the valleys).You said there was. I asked you to provide the evidence, then you said there is no evidence as the analysis hadn't been undertaken yet.
This reinforces my point that politicians are simply saying there are economic benefits without actually understanding them or knowing how those benefits will manifest in the economy. I have said several times on this thread that I wished politicians wouldn't make such empty promises.
You then say we should compare the valleys electrification with similar projects and cite cross rail as an example. I personally think its bonkers to compare cross rail with the valleys electrification. I don't think I need to explain why?
it appears then that we were debating different things. I was talking about the electrification of the Valleys lines - what were you talking about?
I have asked many times what the economic benefits of electrifying the Valleys lines were and was told by yourself and others that the economic benefits had been well documented. The best efforts that could be mustered were references to other projects that can be described as similar because they relate to trains and thats about it. The Welsh context is very important as our base to grow is much different from London, surely you appreciate that?
It transpires that I was correct, there is no evidence (as of yet) to suggest any economic benefits will come to Wales - only post hoc rationalisation.
let me ask you a question, but before I do, will provide some background information: an observed tree falls in a forest and is observed to make a noise.
Q does an unobserved tree make a noise when it falls in a forest?
what you need to consider is whether observed and unobserved trees behave in the same way? Do we know the behaviour patterns of unobserved trees? Can we know the behaviour patterns or do we have to make assumptions?
A few thoughts.
I think that the electrification of the Valleys Lines would give more people more opportunity to take or look for jobs further afield than they do at present - most obviously in Cardiff. Most people have a rough idea of how far they would be willing to commute in relation to their salary. Generally, I'd travel up to an hour for a job, but it would need to be markedly better than my current role (e.g.better pay or better prospects or better firm to work for etc)for me to travel that far.
Making travel from Merthyr (for example) to Cardiff easier, more pleasant and quicker, even if only by ten minutes (which could be significant in relative terms), will give more people more opportunities to travel to employment.
Having a wider area of potential workforce will probably encourage some companies to locate here.
Improving access to Cardiff (and indeed destinations further afield whether Newport, Swansea, the Airport or Bristol) by making public transport quicker, cleaner and more pleasant may also encourage more people to live in the Valleys and trigger more housing development, and its associated economic stimumlus. Electrification could also be the first step towards a metro-style network, which would be likely to trigger development in other parts of Cardiff.
There is a degree of speculation in this admittedly, but I'm sure there would be economic benefits arising from electrification compared with a do-nothing scenario.
Jackomanchestra, your first post on this thread said and I quote:" this really is good news - lets hope it goes ahead as it could kick start some sort of economic regeneration."
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