I didn't realise she admitted it - oops, my bad. in which case she is bang to rights. still not sure she deserves to lose her job though. you wouldn't in any other walk of life. to err is to be human

I have to say that it's quite refeshing that she has stuck her hands up to it without prevarication or coercion, resigned her portfolio and is prepared to take what comes her way. If all politicians admitted it when they were wrong or have acted like a twat (I'm looking at you Andrew Mitchell) they might recover some of the publics confidence.

silly idea Karl - we'd be having bye elections all the bloody time

Quite right Jantra. But I don't think that would be a bad thing - voters tend to give the ruling party a bloody nose at bye elections and maybe vote outside of their tribal allegiances. It might keep the parties on their toes instead of taking the electorate for granted. It might even lead to greater engagement with politics. Or maybe not!

march against the cuts

really Mark. Last year the cuts attracted 250k marchers, this year it attracted 100k marchers. That's some drop in people who feel enough about the cuts to actually protest.

it would appear that despite all the rhetoric from the fruit cakes on the left, that low inflation, low interest rates, 1m more jobs than 2010 and the deficit being reduced would indicate that the UK is actually getting better, albeit a lot slower than first expected.

I've moved to London so not posted on here for a while, I was walking down Oxford street on saturday and I nearly got knocked over by some anarchist nutter who was being chased by some 20 police officers outside M&S I didn't see anything get smashed up though think the met have learn lessons good on them.

Public spending is going to decrease by about 3% by the end of the governments target of eliminating the deficit by 2017 hardly austerity is it? The reason our economy is sluggish is because its weighed down by a public sector largesse that is nearly half of the economy our problem is we aren't cutting back fast enough.

growth

so we are officially out of recession. what is more impressive is that the olympics made up only around 0.2% of the 1.0% growth. Quarterly growth of 1.0% compounds to an annualised equivalent of 4.1% or thereabouts - so it makes for good reading. What is even more impressive is that this is against a backdrop of reduced public spending and the eurozone crisis. So all in all, a long way to go, but signs that the UK economy is beginning to pick up and rebalance in favour of a better private/public mix.

I'd be interested to see what Wales' figures were...we can only guess but I reckon it would be retrograde

I'm not sure whether the media's mention of the Olympics as being one of the drivers behind a return to growth isn't a bit disingenuous. If you need to spend X billions of taxpayers/lottery money just to get a 0.2% one-off improvement in one quarter then that's hardly the way to go is it?

We need sustainable private sector led growth - that is hopefully the underlying strength of these figures.

From the BBCs economic News feed

1032: Chris Sutherwood, Cardiff writes:

So does this mean the UK is coming out of recession or that London is? Seriously guys, wake up and smell the coffee (if you can afford it) most parts of the UK are still deep in it. Take a look at Newport town centre, around 60% of shops are closed and most people in South Wales are still very much unemployed. More needs to be done in other parts of the UK I think, not just in the Big Smoke.


Now i see what he's getting at but i was under the impression that the unemployed rate was approximately 8% which certainly is not most people. I'm actually in Newport at the moment and while there are a number of shops closed there certainly isnt 60% - these poposterous posts shouldnt be allowed. Especially as they didnt seem willing to post my response.

He probably got his information from his local labour councillor or union rep!

Not sure if this is the right thread but I'm surprised that no-one has commented on the WG being granted borrowing powers for infrastructure projects (which also seems to be linked to the granting of restricted tax raising/varying powers).

I'd say thats quite a momentous leap forward for devolution but seems to have slipped under the radar. There was a referendum last year that effectively simplified the legislative process but was debated as though it was a vote for UDI. And yet the ability to borrow and raise/vary certain taxes seems to have been decided in a committee room (even though it seems to me that this is a more profound change to the powers of the Assembly). Curious.

These borrowing powers could finance some interesting projects such as the proposed South Wales Metro, improvements to the M4 etc etc

it most certainly hasn't slipped under this radar. I read it today and I'm still speechless why anyone would contemplate giving those cretinous bumpkins any further responsibility. what this really means is that WG will have the ability to borrow money via tax increases - great, the left wingers increase everyone's taxes seeing capital flight over the border into England. If the dullards had any sort of track record of delivering cost effective value for money projects then you could be coerced into believing that this could be the kick start that Wales needs - however we all know that the morons that inhabit the Senedd aspire to waste, petty bureaucracy and un-productivity. The effect will be ten years spending billions on capital projects that deliver two fifths of bugger all.

i suppose given the good news of the UK economy the Welsh Government have used this day to deliver the bad news to Wales. We are FUBAR

I don't know what FUBAR means. Internet acronyms are shit IMHO.

Anyway - the borrowing powers are limited as I understand and only in relation to infrastructure projects (not sure how thats defined but lets assume rail, road etc). The tax raising powers will be limited to area's such as stamp duty, landfill tax, APD etc. I understand that income tax powers would only be granted after a referendum. So whilst there may be some effect on the ordinary Joe if taxes go up we won't see income tax rising to 1970's levels and hordes of fiscal exiles heading to the tax free enclave of Moreton in the Marsh.


Also we were told that once the referendum last year was passed that there would be a deluge of new laws. So far that power has been used very sparingly. I can't see WG engaging on an orgy of borrowing to fund a frenzy of road building just so that they can use their new powers.

I think that's because of the time it (rightly or wrongly) takes to make a law: gather evidence, consult, listen to experts, consult, draft green/white papers, consult, U-turn, drop a bollock, consult, redraft a paper, get another independent report, draft a bill...

There's certainly work going on towards Sustainable Development Act, Planning Act, Housing Act and Environment Act, no doubt various other unrelated Acts as well.

I reckon the lack of pointless laws is more to do with the spat between the Westminster government and the Senedd over where they can actually legislate.

do you think WG will lower taxes or raise them?

FUBAR = fcuked up beyond all recognition, its a bit like SNAFU

SNAFU? C'mon Jantra i've only just figured out what AFAIK means.
Surely Not Another Fuck Up?
Still Not A Fuck Up?

All I can say with any certainty is that FU stands for Fuck Up.

As for taxes all the discussion recently have been about lowering APD to stimulate growth at Cardiff airport. That doesn't mean that it won't go up but that would be an epic u-turn.

Landfill tax is one of those nudge taxes isn't it? You nudge local authorities to improve recycling rates in order to avoid financial penalties. Not unlike the plastic bag charge.

As for the other tax area's where the WG may get power to vary I really don't know. What I do know is that the major taxes that I pay - Income tax and VAT - will still be set my Westminster.

situation normal, all fucked up

For the past 200 years it has been the accepted paradigm that growth is good. A 4% annual growth rate would if maintained mean that the UK economy would double in size within 18 years with resultant increases in consumption of goods and raw materials i.e. growth is exponential. In the past two decades a lot of our consumption has come from goods produced in China where the annual growth rate has been in the region of 8-12% per annum. The result for the consumption of coal in China has resulted in consumption rising from 1,239 million short tons in 2000 to 4,049 million short tons in 2011.

We have to have growth to repay debt and to cope with a growing world population but is that sustainable in any practiable manner. As the book from the 1970's was titled there are Limits to Growth and these limits probably have more to do with our present predicament than we care to realise. The question for the future of the world and not just the UK is can we have a steady state economy where the majority are prosperous.

A fate you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/11/05/london-councils-consider-moving-benefits-claimants-to-merthyr-91466-32168729/#sitelife-commentsWidget-bottom

do you mean:-

1. having cockneys live next door to you or

2. having to live in Merthyr

Labours education policy is still failing Wales

if this article is to be believed

the census, taken in 2011, shows that up to 26% of Welsh people have no qualifications of any sort. It may be up from one third ten years ago (2001) but that is still no cause for celebration. this is on top of 77k people never actually having a job between 1997-2010 and yet some people seem to think that Wales is better off under Labour. utter madness. Still, as long as Wales is Labour then we will fall further behind the rest of the UK in just about every measure and this will of course make the Labour lovers' very happy indeed. There is nothing that a Labour loving socialist loves to see than lower standards of living for all.

That is surprisingly high. Better than the West Midlands and the North East though...(small victories).

At least the % has improved since the previous census, though I appreciate that numbers don't tell the full story.

When you think about it though it is to be expected. Up until only a few years ago Wales was a predominantly industrial countries. More people went into industry because they needed to work, education was seen as a waste because you were spending more time being economically inactive. Now, due to de-industrialisation, people are going to FE colleges and teenagers are staying in school, hence the drop. What is shocking though is that only 24% of adults in Wales have A-levels or a degree.

I think the 24% refers to people with degree qualifications or the equivalent. The figure for the whole of the UK is 27%, again that would be on the low side if it included A levels as well as degrees.

Possibly part of the reason for the lower level of degree qualification/higher level of no qualifications in Wales is that the population is statistically older than in most parts of England. Here it is an average age of 41 to 39 in England and there are more over 65 year olds as a % of the population. Older people do tend to have less qualifications particularly A levels and degrees.

It would also be interesting to see the qualifications of those Welsh people that now live in England. I suspect that on average they are more highly qualified which suggests that the actual level of educational achievement by Welsh people isn't that far from the UK norm. And of course it is a gross generalisation but the evidence is also likely to suggest that the better qualified and younger Welsh people migrating to England and elsewhere are replaced by older and probably less qualified people moving into Wales for retirement etc.

That may be the case, I could have easily mistaken the figures. I do think the news used higher education/degrees. So I wasn't sure if they were counting A-levels in that because the other stats were 5 GCSEs and unskilled. I may have got the wrong end of the stick.

At least it is finally some good news. Economic out put is up, unskilled people down, unemployment down, GVA gap closing. Onwards and upwards, I say.

well done Tories. its great to see that the economic medicine is working. also, did you know that during 1997-2010 77,000 people in Wales did not work a single day in that time - 77,000 people. just goes to show that Labour really don't care for Wales like some simpletons have you believe.

Thankfully we now have a party in power who wish to make people responsible for their own lives and are providing the economic backdrop to allow the private sector to grow.

three cheers for Gorgeous George

jobless figures
 
It would appear as if the jobless total in Wales has increased by 7k and the total for the UK has increased by 7k. This would infer the UK ex Wales has been flat. Which political party is responsible for economic development in Wales and which political party will the terminally stupid still vote for? I await the usual apologists nonsensical response born out of devotion to the party rather than application of common sense.

The Labour Force Survey for Wales has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 11,000, so monthly variations are essentially meaningless, though the Welsh media seem to be unable to grasp this concept.

Unemployment in Wales is basically unchanged over the past twelve months, though I believe economic inactivity has fallen.

Wales' total unemployed is £125k - yet you seem to think that having a margin of error of around 10% is ok - it is not. Not that I beleive we have a margin of error of nearly 10% but if we did then it is reason number 4,365 why the public sector and civil service are just not up to the job. Which other sector would ever release figures with such ridiculously high margin's for error?

Where did I say that I regard this level of unemployment as acceptable?

The quarterly Labour Force Survey is a questionnaire distributed to about 50,000 households every three monthe, questioning them about their employment, earnings etc. About 30,000 people return the survey, making the figures for the UK as a whole pretty reliable. For smaller geographical units, and Wales is nearly the smallest, the statistical margin of error becomes quite large as only around 1,500 households are sampled. I couldn't find the exact figures when I googled just now, but I believe the 95% confidence interval for Welsh unemployment data is plus or minus 11,000.

It is therefore rarely, if ever, worth getting excited about monthly unemployment data in Wales.

I didn't say you did. I said the 10% give or take margin of error was unacceptable. it is. it is criminal.


I really don't believe it. 11k when we have 120k or thereabouts unemployed. I'd expect a 95% CI of 1 standard deviation, given the population is 1.5m this would be around 2k or so.


of course it is. The UK stays flat, Wales unemployment rises. That would indicate your beloved WG/Welsh Labour are not doing as well as the coalition/westminster.

but you'll never admit it because (i) you hate Thatcher (ii) you'll never vote the evil Tories etc etc. that is - the usual nonsense from the left whenver it is pointed out quite clearly that Labour have failed Wales - yet again

Aha, found the figures.

The Welsh unemployment rate is plus or minus 1.2%, so it's somewhere between 7.2% and 9.6%.

Although taking the central figure it's essentially unchanged since 2010.

Check for yourself:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-261328



I'm a member of Plaid Cymru, of course I think Labour has failed Wales.

But the unemployment statistics do not support your assertion that Wales is solely responsible for the rise in UK unemployment.

If Welsh unemployment is +/-1.2% then whoever collects the stats needs removing. That is an appalling margin of error it really is. Yet more evidence that our public sector is not fit for purpose and our civil servants are just not up to scratch. It is far easier to moan about your extremely generous pension entitlements than do some proper work I suppose and get that margin of error down to something that can be used with confidence.

As for your claim that you are a paid up member of Plaid – splendid. Plaid are even worse than Labour. Let’s not forget coco the clown’s attempt at running the economy – I assume Wyn-Jones tenure was a blatant attempt at being a clown as no-one could seriously get it that wrong unless they were aiming to do so. The basic premise is if you are left wing in nature you are devoid of any sort of responsible approach to balancing the books. Borrowing is not an option.

UK unemployment rose by 7k, Wales unemployment rose by 7k. Simple maths tells me that if you strip out Wales from the UK the UK remains flat. Welsh unemployment has risen whereas the rest of the UK hasn’t. All hail the left wing fail.

The rest of the UK might be flat if you strip out Wales, but that's only taking the rest of the UK as a single entity. England will be full of regional variations, some areas will have increases, some will have decreases, and what are the figures of England as a whole compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland, for example?

Just because the Wales increase is the same as the national increase does NOT mean that Wales is the ONLY part of the UK to see unemployment rise. It also ignores variations within Wales itself where doubtless some regions are doing well, others less so. To use this statistical coincidence to promote a message that Wales is somehow faring worse than any other part of the UK, which is what your language suggests, is disingenuous.

In fact, Northern Ireland has seen the largest jump in unemployment, Scotland has seen a substantial reduction so by elimination England has seen a very small rise.

So I guess we can infer that the SNP should be in charge of economic development for the whole UK. Oh no, hang on, that's a left wing nationalist party. Er.

Regionally, the jobless rate in Northern Ireland rose to 8.5%, its highest level for 15 years, second only to the North East of England at 9.8%.

Source [url[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21857396[/url]

For someone who claims to be an ex-physicist and an accountant, your grasp of figures is frankly frightening.

I'm all ears. if the UK has risen by a total of 7k and Wales has also risen by a total of 7k, then the UK excluding Wales has risen by what?



@DaiB
I never said anything about regional variations, i merely stated that the UK excluding Wales was flat whereas Wales on its own lost 7k jobs. I'm not really bothered about the rest of the UK, just that we in Wales always seem to do badly.

I would just like to point out that the figures for London are just as bad as Wales. According to the stats listed under A07: Regional labour market summary on here London has 8.5% unemployment also.

Wales is actually better off than North East 9.8%, North West 8.6%, Yorkshire and The Humber 9%, the West Midlands 8.7 and ties with London - the region with the most public sector jobs per capita in the UK - at 8.5%.

Jantra is quite right to say that England remained stagnant due to London BUT Scotland's unemployment is still falling (4,000 on the last quarter) but overall the English regions, withstanding London, are actually doing worse than Wales with an increase of 0.8% from August - October 2012 in comparison to Wales' 0.5 which isn't balanced by the South East, South West and the Yorkshire and Humber figures which reported decreases.

The articles do state that this could be a statistical blip but these figures are nothing to shout about. Slash and burn economic policies are not working. We should start turning towards a more Hegel like economic philosophy to get people into work along with welfare reforms.

Jantra, you said this:

"Welsh unemployment has risen whereas the rest of the UK hasn’t."

Once again - "The rest of the UK hasn't."

This is nonsense, unemployment has risen in lots of areas of the rest of the UK, in some cases by more than it has risen in Wales. The fact that the overall figure happens to be the same as the Welsh increase is a complete irrelevance - a statistical coincidence that means absolutely nothing. I dare say I could pick some other region of the UK where unemployment has risen by 7,000 and declare that without that region the rest of the UK (including Wales)is flat - which by your logic presumably would mean that Wales has no problem!

Wales is clearly NOT doing ok, but to seize on a statistical coincidence as further evidence that this is all the responsibility of the left-wingers in the Sennedd is to disingenously deny that there are other regions of the UK with equal or greater problems at the moment.

You're basically using the politician's trick of presenting the stats in such a way as to provide evidence for a viewpoint which you have already decided is the case. Ironic, given the thread title...

It's not nonsense at all. If the total had risen by 7k and Wales had risen by 7k then it is entirely correct to say the rest of the uk has remained flat. I am making a comment about the rest of the uk as a whole. I am well aware that the rest of the Uk is subdivided but I'm not really interested in the other subdivisions.

I believe context is a more appropriate word than disingenuous. I am merely pointing out that when compared with the rest of the uk we are not doing so great. It is up to other areas of the uk to interpret the data that is relevant to them. We have the senedd which is responsible for economic growth and development in Wales. Ergo we look at the performance and we see it is bad - very bad.

Lol. You are hilarious.

I'm still wating for you to tell me the answer to seven less seven. I asked you yesterday evening and you still haven't responded. we can do this in baby steps if you like

It was Lyndon that you asked, not me. I was at a karaoke event in Grangetown last night at 7. We Plaid people have better things to do than sit poised over a screen all night. I would imagine that Lyndon was occupied with something equally thrilling.
Maybe you could rejoin Jantra? It might get you out into the real, rather than cyber world a bit more. Your debating style will have to be "updated", though. Just think, you could be the first politician that you actually trust!

I only joined Plaid because I was impressed with the fact that they had grass roots supporters who could be bothered to find out what really mattered to people. They were the only party who showed an interest in my issues at that time and thus I thought they were a party worthy of support.

However, as I have gotten older, nationalism/irredentism means even less to me than ever before. it really is a 19th century plague of the mind. We are all European and we all need to live and work together. For me, as a lot of people, the economy comes first right now. People want to know they have a bright future with jobs and not the ability for their children to say 'cawl a bara os gwelwch yn dda' at the soup kitchen.

perhaps I do need to get out more rather than working 14 hours a day. Who knows, i could live the high life and come to strangetown and sing karaoke - living the dream!

one other thing. Plaid and the economy. Would you say Plaid can be trusted considering Wales went backwards compared to the rest of the UK under the stewardship of Coco the clown despite being at the helm during a period of unprecedented inward investment, property development and economic growth elsewhere? I don't. In fact, I'd say plaid are even less of a safe bet than the current lackwits running the Cardiff Bay asylum

Plaid were "at the helm" from May 2007 til May 2011. IWJ had no monetary levers or fiscal powers and you know it. Bear Stearns/ Northern Rock went under in August and September of 2011.
So, IWJ had 3 months of boom times to attract inward investment, which was just about the only task he could perform given the powers of the Assembly and the (then) WAG.
Calling him Coco the Clown does you no credit. If you can't accept that even if Wales were totally independent we would be largely at the mercy of events and trends in Europe and the World then you are clearly not worth arguing with any more. I doubt whether you know or have met any of the people you slag off so contemptuously. Maybe you should write to them.
As to you working 14 hours a day, really? You must have been spending at least 2 hours a day as FEEDBACK and another hour as JANTRA for the past 5 years or so.
God bless.

so are you saying we may as well give back the devolved powers to run the economy? sounds like it? Or are you saying that we should carry on voting Labour as Wales' woeful economic performance is not their fault as they have 'no monetary or fiscal levers'. I just want us to be consistent in our approach and will let you decide...



he was out of his depth and considerably so. He was a solicitor from Gwynedd who was given the task of bringing Wales into the 20th century economically. Still, you reap what you sow when you elect left wing parties to power.


if someone wants to be a politician then as far as I am concerned they are there to be shot at. If they fail (and IWJ failed massively), then politicians deserve to be labelled as failures. Having quixotic ideals is not enough if you want to be a politician. you need a little bit more than that.

it is the public's duty to hold our government to account. if they fail they need to know otherwise we get the same old rubbish thrown our way

i also agree that Wales is beholden to the rest of the EU and the wider world. Perhaps we'll stop this relentless march towards independence then and realise in today's global economy no-one is really independent.


why? what would that achieve?


I have a bit of down time and post on here (I've left CCMB as work really is busy at present and is only getting worse)

Socialism is the blight of our society that is all.

When the conservatives left office in 1997 the deficit was 800m. When labour left office in 2010 the deficit was 157bn, nearly 200 times greater. Socialism is a great theory but you need a strong economy to finance your aims. By its very nature socialism creates an unproductive inefficient economy that cannot finance it's aims. Socialism almost always brings bankruptcy. Fiscal conservatism is about living within your means. Whilst we are talking about that, if anyone thinks Wales can go it alone they need to look at Cyprus and see the effect of the bigger richer neighbour turning off the capital inflows

Mark Littlewood on question time last night summed up my views we are adding £600 billion to the debt over this parliament and it's immoral you should have seen the Labout idiot squirm when asked if she wanted to borrow more.
Socialists can have their socialism as long as they pay for it!