Ok, using these figures:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busiest_airports_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_total_passenger_traffic
One can see that 230 million passengers used the UK's 40 largest airports. Now, these are only rough estimates that I am going to make using this data.
130 million pssengers used the 5 London airports, which leaves 100 million passengers using the remaining UK airports. Subtract the population of the East, SouthEast and London regions from the UK total population and you are left with about 40 million people.
So, 40 million people outside of the reach of the London airports make 100 million journeys. I know that these figures include inbound passengers but the same is true to a greater extent of the London airports. Therefore, each person makes about 2.5 trips. So the reach of Cardiff airport, from Ceredigion to Monmouthshire encompasses 2 million people. If the airport was performing averagely, those people would be making 5 million passenger journeys through Cardiff airport. Build the infrastructure, attract the passengers, attract the routes and this level of activity should arise. I am sure that the owners and the Welsh Government have done these sums, the question is, why had nobody publically addressed the underperformance until last week?

Mr Ad Hominem

thats probably more analysis than anyone at WG has ever done on the subject and whilst its using some high level assumptions, I think it shows that put the right infrastructure in place the pax figures should increase

Careyn jones is in the echo again today criticising the airport once more. Andrew rt Davies is also quoted as saying the minister is swerving his governments responsibility for lack of infrastructure development. In a way they are both correct. However as jones is labour and left wing his own ideology is state control and influence correcting market conditions where required. Perhaps he should actually do something about it. It really is a weary debate and I'm beginning to think not much can now be done

Apparently, according to other City forums, Carwyn Jones has said that there are interested parties in our airport. I'm not sure whether this would mean private companies, the VoG council or even the Welsh Government. If W.G takes over the ownership, it would be away for them to get around the pesky E.U regulations with regards to subsidising international flights. The Cardiff - Anglesey route is allowed as it is internal, but the New York one isn't. Ridiculous rule if you ask me

Pages 6 and 7 of today's echo, honestly you couldn't make it up. I don't have a Flickr account etc or I would link to a picture of it. If someone else can do it great

Does anyone know if all the proposed work on the aiport has been done as suggested in this link

http://www.skyscanner.net/news/articles/2009/03/001022-cardiff-airport-development-to-begin-in-october.html

Not been to it in ages as I mostly fly from Bristol as there are actual flights from there

The Tory wing of the current Westminster Govt are considering a U turn over a third runway at Heathrow (well there is a shock, the b@%"&ds).The most obvious airport with capacity to take on the projected growth and good links to London would be Cardiff (soon to be a whole 17 minutes closer). Now if there was joined up thinking at all levels within UK Govt wouldn't you think that this is an option woth exploring?

Not remotely. I would say Birmingham would be the most sensible place to direct expansion, especially with HS2. That or actually build a brand new fit for purpose replacement for Heathrow elsewhere in the South East.

You're being far too optimistic, I'd go so far as to say not even remotely 'not remotely'.

In fact, there's about as much chance of Cardiff Airport filling such a gap as there is of me (sans licence de pilotage) being the pilot on the inaugural plane to depart from this new super airport.

It's back in the news :


http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/03/27/first-minister-carwyn-jones-says-new-group-can-ensure-cardiff-airport-overtakes-bristol-91466-30629425/

A bit pie in the sky. CWL has too far to go to overtake BRS.

Tonight (15th), BBC1, 10:35.

Week In Week Out: Cardiff Airport's Turbulent Times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007hj4j

Fewer flights, fewer passengers, falling profits - can Cardiff airport fly high again? Week In Week Out investigates.

_____

Welsh government willing to buy stake in Cardiff Airport

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-18068772

The first minister says the Welsh government would be willing to buy a stake in Cardiff Airport if it was put up for sale.

Patrick Duffy has left Cardiff Airport.

I have to agree with the pilot on the WIWO programme.
It's all about size and economies of scale. CWL has lost. Any monies invested would be totally wasted.

Better for the WAG to concentrate on reducing the Tax to get into to South Wales by road.
They could also help pay for better road access to BRS.

The future of Cardiff Airport. Is at Bristol.

Should CWL now focus on inbound business and tourism routes as suggested in a report today?

Cardiff does receive a greater number of tourists than Bristol

If only there was some kind of structure across the Severn linking Cardiff to North Somerset, that would provide a quicker link to Bristol Airport

Cuckoo. Cuckoo. Cuckoo. That'll get the passenger numbers up!

Surely some lo-co airline(s)can eventually plug the gap left by BMI ?

Can we not at least hope for that?

A capital city without its own airport is ridiculous

It could never compete head to head with BRS now, but passengers numbers eventually returning to its height of 2.1 million, (with the presence of a lo-co airline or two) isn't being overly optimistic surely?

Traditionally, Barcelona and Orlando flights always did very well from CWL, so good news they have returned

Prague was also very popular (but oddly dropped by BMI) as was Dominican Republic. Toronto flights ran for years

The demand for certain destinations was definitely there

The largest numbers of tourists to the this city come from France, so adding the French routes would surely be beneficial

Yes, an underperforming airport is one thing, but for the only UK capitol city to be without an airport is quite shameful

What will the future then hold for our economy?

Newcastle has a similar demographic to Cardiff , yet their airport manages 4-5 million passengers per year. Then again, they don't have the competition on their doorstep

Hopefully the Silk Commission will say the same things as the Holtham Commission with regards to ADP being devolved. A reduced rate could be enough to kick-start something at CWL, may entice long distance flights to the Americas, Americans and Canadians love Wales.

A greater presence of WG, with regards to owning a stake in the airport, would be beneficial as they can evade the pesky E.U rules with regards to subsidies to airlines, something which I have never really understood myself. Some places, such as Wales, don't have the population to support a massive airport so airlines won't come, but the tourism potential here is enormous. We don't even have flights to Italy, one of the world's most visited countries, and we play them ever year in the rugby. If we could create greater links with countries that are aware of us the potential is there. Milan, Rome and Venice are massive tourist hotspots, but have the potential to bring in many Italians which the sun and spade flights that they, mostly, offer now do not.

I have many foreign friends that have visited Cardiff and have loved it. If it were only a more tourist friendly place, that is to say, easy to get around and just a little less scruffy in places such as Cathays Park, Queens Street, Cathays and parts of the Bay it has the potential to be world class. Germany pays a lot of money towards keeping cities aesthetically pleasing for tourists for instance so maybe the same should be done in Cardiff city centre. The lighting of attractions needs to be done more regularly also.

Information regarding Last month passenger numbers:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport_data_prov/201204/April_2012_Provisional_Airport_Statistics.pdf

CWL:

Flights This Month: 1,067
% Change Same Month Last Year: -15.9
Flights Rolling Year:15,401
% Change Same Period Last Year: -9.6
Passengers This Month:63,113
% Change Same Month Last Year:-23.7
Passengers Rolling Year (2011):1,150,090
% Change Same Period Last Year: -15.6


Looking at that, the rate of decline was be greater than I had been expecting. I mean, the 1.2 million figure didn't sound too bad, but I was expecting it to have been over 1.2 million and subsequently rounded down, rather than the passenger numbers being well under 1.2 and closer to 1.1 million. (were it not for those 90 passengers... god bless em)

If it doesn't improve later on in the year and the current trend continues, we could be seeing passenger numbers drop down to the 900k-950k mark for 2012.

I'll just cut and paste my posting dated January last year with a few edited updates.


"We've been saying it on this forum for ages - this airport is effectively being administered the last rites.

A third (EDIT: FOURTH) consecutive set of annual PAX numbers in freefall hammers home the point.

The previous management at Cardiff airport sat back and got complacent and Bristol ran rings around them.

When Ryanair pulled out from their ONE Dublin route about 5 years ago citing increased charges,alarm bells were ringing loud and clear.

Over the last 5 (EDIT: SIX) years, Bristol has expanded its route network to cover over 50 (EDIT: OVER SEVENTY) Ryanair/Easyjet European destinations. Cardiff has expanded to include a highly subsidised flight to Anglesey and a thrice weekly to Barcelona.

I don't know how much money the airport makes, but if passenger numbers continue to tumble and either BMIbaby or KLM pull out (EDIT: if KLM PULL OUT), then its viability could well be called into question."



PS: Does 'CapItAll' has any fresh comments to make on the current state of the airport?

Of true this could be the end of Cardiff Airport

http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/Dubai-money-men-create-600-jobs-Pembrey-Airport/story-16386721-detail/story.html

If Ryanair etc are all queueing up for Pembrey airport, why is the same not happening at Cardiff?

There's a much bigger population in south east Wales. Is it landing charges? Or is the Pembrey story a lot of spin?

I think Cardiff Airport pissed on its chips a while back with Ryan Air. It doesn't really matter about the catchment area size I suppose. If the flights are there the people will come. It is in the former Dyfed so has a catchment of around 300,000 from just that county. Include Swansea etc. and that increases to around half a million. If Ryan Air flights leave from the West I'm sure that Cardiffians would use the airport too to avoid the bridge tolls. Only Gwent and the North are really out of the catchment area. It is ideally placed as an airport around 1 hour from most major attractions of South and West Wales

The ffos las racecourse which is about 5 mins drive from the airport is quite popular with the Irish. This may be another plus point for ryanair.

Press release story.... printed verbatim by the hacks.

Pembrey International Airport.

Good story except for the typo.
Flights are to Dunbia not Dubai!

http://wales.gov.uk/newsroom/firstminister/2012/6396189/?lang=en

"The Cardiff Airport Task Force will examine the competitive position of the airport and brings together the site’s owners, the Welsh Government and business leaders.

Among the group’s aims is to look at ways to improve the airport, grow the number of flights, expand connectivity with other countries, to develop the experience of passengers and boost economic investment.

The First Minister personally chaired the meeting which included representatives from Cardiff Airport, St Athan Enterprise Zone British Airways Maintenance, CBI Wales, the South Wales Chamber of Commerce, Trade Unions, the Vale of Glamorgan County Council and the Welsh Local Government Association.

Speaking after the meeting, the First Minister said:

"Wales, as a confident European nation, needs a national airport we can all be proud of. I have established this new Task Force for one clear reason – to make sure Cardiff Airport grows and thrives.

"I want Cardiff Airport to realise its true potential as a modern, well connected success at the heart of our national infrastructure. The airport is the gateway to our country and I want it to provide a fitting welcome to Wales and play a key part in our economic growth.

"For Cardiff Airport to be all it can be, the Welsh Government, the owners and all those with an interest need to work together. Today’s meeting is the first step in this process.

"We held constructive talks, explored our mutual interests and agreed on some joint actions before the next meeting. While, ultimately the day-to-day operation of Cardiff Airport is the responsibility of Abertis, I want this Task Group to bring about real, positive change for the airport that benefits everyone."

some of you may have noticed that I don't particuarly hold WG in that high regard. I appreciate that this may be a shock to some but it is true. My opinion on this is that it is way too little way too late. BRS has really stolen an unassailable lead of CWL and it would take more than a few jollys at the tax payers expense sitting around the table with some key and not so key stakeholders to get things moving.

of course we'll hear all the usual apologists banging on about WG not having much in their arsenal (in which case why bother), but that never really stopped the South West of England grasping the mettle and working with BRS to drive it forward.

In my view, the best thing that can be done is just let the market decide what is best for CWL - which ultimately will be further decline.

In the 13 years since 1999 we have not had one inch of new road built from the M4 to the airport, we have had the Rhoose line opened up but its about as much use as a second belly button when you think you still have to walk or catch a bus. Then when you consider the bus services are much worse than they were 20 years ago and you realise that actually, WG and the buffoons that lead it really do not have their finger on the pulise and are not fit to pass water never mind legislation.

the international gateway to Wales is bettered by airports in such glamorous destinations as Kazahkstan - we really do aspire to very little and all we have to blame are our politicans and their desire to turn us into a socialist backwater akin to 1950s Georgia. All hail comrade Carwyn and his free prescriptions - Welsh Labour know what the people of Wales really need.

Jantra, the market doesn't always know best and in this case the decline of Cardiff Airport would be a nightmare. Cardiff airport has been in decline for many reasons but the WG is not to blame. It is owned by a private company.

Wales needs an airport and that is that. It hay be shutting the stable doors after the horse horse has bolted but we need it. Cardiff is a far better city than Bristol and Wales has more to offer than West England. The airport could help to bring in tourists rather than only take them out. That is why the New York link should be of utmost importance.

Unfortunately, Wales, Cardiff and our airport have been badly managed by tourist boards and we need a fresh look and we need to exploit our USPs rather than bleating on about how few Starbucks we have.

@SP

I agree with everything you say. The point that I was making was that you know it, I know, everyone on this forum knows it, everyone in Wales knows it save for the 60 lackwit bumpkins in the Senedd.

The fact is it is too little too late. BRS stole a march when the consumer had oodles of cash to spend on overseas travel...now the market is a little less freewheeling with its cash the traveller has to be a bit more discerning. BRS beats CWL hands down and no amount of politburo intervention led by the great leader and his acolytes will redress the balance.

it would be useful if perhaps we questioned what our politicians were doing whilst rome burnt however the Welsh electorate could not possibly comprehend a life without Labour and the state handouts that they bring. Until the Welsh electorate wants real change then we'll be stuck with the third rate politicians that we have and Wales will fall further behind on almost every measure (except for free prescriptions and a tax on plastic shopping bags - the real big ticket items)

I'm sorry Jantra, but I just don't agree that Wales would be better without the Senedd. It is not a tax on plastic bags and you know it! The money goes to charity. I personally prefer those in the Senedd to those in Westminster at this point in time.

Visit Wales needs to pull its fingers out and actually help the airport. They need to tailor make advertising campaigns for the countries in which Cardiff Airport flies to. When I lived in Barcelona the metro was packed with advertisements for Visit Sicily. It doesn't take to much imagination to figure out how it should be done.

Didn't realise they had plastic bags in sub Saharan Africa.

Incidentally Italy also charges for plastic bags. Mind you, they are closer to Africa than we are.

Jantra, the entire British state is in one hell of a mess. Welsh debt is, will be and would be minuscule in comparison to that of Britain and England. If I recall we are in around £1 trillion worth of debt and back into recession.